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Wait For This Pattern For Bullish Swing Trades - It Has Not Happened Yet

Posted by Pete Stolcers on October 4

Posted 9:30 am ET – Asset Managers are waiting for signs that support has formed. The second test of the 100-day MA and a close above it Friday was a good start. Dips have been bought for the last year, but this decline has been orderly and sustained on a relative basis. The S&P 500 was up 15 points overnight and now it is down 5 points. Sellers will test the bid this morning. Stay fluid and keep swing trades to a minimum while the market searches for support.

On the bullish side of the ledger the same theme has been playing out for years. Bond yields do not keep pace with inflation (negative real returns) so investors are piling into stocks. Corporations are facing rising raw material costs, labor shortages and supply disruptions. The best investment for many of them is share buybacks and that is also keeping a bid to the market.

On the bearish side of the ledger, stock valuations have not been this high since the tech bubble of 2000. China may have credit issues with the failure of Evergrande and the world is waiting to see how China responds. Electricity is in short supply in China and they are rationing it. This will impact manufacturing. Supply disruptions are surfacing everywhere and this will add to the problem. China’s market is in bear territory and it is within striking distance of the 52-week low. China’s manufacturing PMI for September was in contraction territory. A slowing economy, electricity shortages, supply disruptions, credit concerns and a $20 trillion shadow banking industry (unregulated) spell trouble in the world’s second largest economy.

The economic news this week will be heavy with ISM services, ADP and the Unemployment Report.

From a technical standpoint we have seen the heaviest selling in a year. The retest of the 100-day MA told us that sellers are in command. Friday the market closed above the 100-day MA and beginning of the month fund buying helped. I am still not convinced that support has been established. I would prefer a nice deep intraday decline on heavy volume that reverses mid-day and never looks back. During the snap back rally the market erases all of the losses for the day, leaving a bullish hammer on the daily chart. This is the type of pattern I can firmly get behind and that would signal a capitulation low. We have not seen anything like that.

Day traders should stay very fluid. I feel the market can go either way. I liked the price action Friday, but that strong close would have prompted an overnight rally if it were legitimate. Instead, the S&P 500 is down before the open. The overnight session has been choppy and that tells me that the market will test both sides this morning. I don’t know which way the market is going to go so I will patiently wait for an opportunity.

Support is at SPY $422 and the 100-day MA. Resistance is at $438 and the 50-day MA.
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