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Here’s Why Trump’s Tweet Tuesday Won’t Lead To A Big Market Drop

Posted by Pete Stolcers on October 7

Posted 9:30 AM ET – Yesterday the S&P 500 rallied to a 2 week high on optimism that a stimulus bill would be signed. In the afternoon, President Trump said that all stimulus negotiations will end until the election. The S&P 500 fell 70 points on the news. This morning he is offering a possible alternative and the S&P 500 is up 25 points. Look for choppy trading the rest of the week.

I see the market decline as an opportunity to sell out of the money bullish put spreads and I will be doing that this morning. Swing traders should take advantage of this drop. Regardless of the election outcome, a stimulus bill will happen. It’s just a matter of how big it is and how it is structured.

This afternoon the FOMC minutes will be released. I’m not expecting anything new. The Fed is as dovish as they can be and the money printing will continue.

Even without a stimulus bill, the economic numbers have been decent and our economy is not walking off of a cliff. ADP, ISM manufacturing, ISM services and consumer confidence were good. The jobs report last Friday was 200,000 jobs shy, but much of that shortfall was related to teachers.

Earnings season will begin in a week and that typically attracts buyers.

Swing traders should sell out of the money bullish put spreads on stocks that have historically rallied into earnings announcements. We have a search in Option Stalker that helps us find these candidates. We want to sell out of the money bullish put spreads that expire in three weeks or less and ideally the stocks have relative strength and heavy volume. By selling below major technical support levels we are increasing our odds of success. Last night I posted my Weekly Swing Trading Video a day early and it had four new trades. If Trump had held off on his latest tweet for a few hours we would’ve been filled on some of them this morning. The bid to the market is strong and I want to sell options that expire before the earnings announcements and before the election. I’m expecting a close above the 50-day moving average today.

Day traders should favor the long side. Stocks with relative strength and heavy volume have been able to sustain momentum during the day and I’m finding my best opportunities on the long side. Look for an early rally that erases some of the losses from yesterday. Know that stimulus related comments will determine market direction.

Support is at SPY $334 and resistance is at $336 and $342.
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